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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 45,589,880
The crowdHeld 11% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018draw 157 of 1,161 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
PowerBall was a 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 156 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 3 May 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 32% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 17 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 156 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 11, 34) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 December 2009 — its closest relative in 156 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 64% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (29 April 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 96 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 33–34. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 31,329 winners, 11% more than the 28k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | — |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 86,704 | ZAR 12.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 18,883 | ZAR 20.00 |
| Match 3 | 31,329 | ZAR 18.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,433 | ZAR 425 |
| Match 4 | 731 | ZAR 407 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 40 | ZAR 19,562 |
| Match 5 | 6 | ZAR 185,728 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | ZAR 45,589,880 |