Saturday, 5 August 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (11, 34, 35, 43) with the draw of 2 January 2021 — its closest relative in 1,391 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 August 2023): 26 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 195 — the 91th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 65% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.