Wednesday, 28 September 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (20, 24, 39, 49) with the draw of 1 August 2020 — its closest relative in 1,302 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 72% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 September 2022): 20, 49 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 192 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 57% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.