Wednesday, 29 September 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (22, 26, 30) with the draw of 24 July 2021 — its closest relative in 1,198 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 21% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.