Wednesday, 20 February 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 10, 22, 47) with the draw of 11 January 2012 — its closest relative in 300 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 26% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 February 2013): 8, 19 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 123 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

47 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 28% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.