In Cash Pop under the 1/15 · since Sep 2022 rules — 549 draws, 1 from 1–15.
30times drawn · chance expected 37 −1.13σ
24draws waiting · a wait this long: 20% for any number
17.8average wait between appearances · chance says 15.0
79longest completed wait · 13% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 30 times in 549 draws against 36.6 expected, −1.13σ. Each draw is independent: after 24 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 30 times in 549 draws · average wait 17.8 draws · longest completed wait 79 · waiting 24 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 14 of the other 14 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 15. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/15 tonight whatever it did last week.