Saturday, 3 May 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 10, 30) with the draw of 23 November 2013 — its closest relative in 636 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 May 2014): 10 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 57 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.