Thursday, 24 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 17, 31) with the draw of 4 November 2010 — its closest relative in 138 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 February 2011): 17, 31 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 89 — the 47th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. No two numbers side by side. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.