Thursday, 9 December 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 15, 17) with the draw of 30 November 2010 — its closest relative in 105 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 77% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 December 2010): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 76 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16, 16–17. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.