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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Revancha · every number · star deck
In Revancha under the 5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 2025 rules — 208 draws, 1 from 1–10.
Drawn 24 times in 208 draws against 20.8 expected, +0.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 24 times in 208 draws · average wait 8.8 draws · longest completed wait 39 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 5 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 5 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 2 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | 5 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | 4 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | 4 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | 4 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | 23 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-07-01 | 13 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-06-01 | 5 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-05-20 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-05-18 | 4 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-05-04 | 7 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-04-17 | 7 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-03-30 | 8 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-03-11 | 19 | 1st | 5 |
| 2026-01-26 | 32 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-11-12 | 39 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-08-13 | 14 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-07-11 | 6 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-06-25 | — | 1st | 5 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 5 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.