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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$86,800,000
The crowdHeld 6% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/69 + 1/26 · since Oct 2015draw 641 of 1,430 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 67 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 86% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 46 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 640 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 30, 51) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 August 2019 — its closest relative in 640 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 69% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (20 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 211 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 175. No two numbers side by side. 27% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 37% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈9.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 14,956 winners, 6% fewer than the 16k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 239,593 | $4.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 98,578 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 12,624 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 | 14,956 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 604 | $100 |
| Match 4 | 225 | $100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 12 | $50,000 |
| Match 5 | 1 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $86,800,000 |