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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$259,300,000
The crowdHeld 11% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/69 + 1/26 · since Oct 2015draw 612 of 1,430 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 2 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 48 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 35% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 44 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 611 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 65, 67) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 February 2016 — its closest relative in 611 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 67% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 208 — the 77th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 175. No two numbers side by side. 27% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →6 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 37% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈15M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 922 winners, 12% fewer than the 1.0k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 395,123 | $4.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 160,090 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 20,019 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 | 23,229 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 922 | $100 |
| Match 4 | 343 | $100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 20 | $50,000 |
| Match 5 | 1 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $259,300,000 |