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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$25,000,000
The crowdHeld 23% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012draw 312 of 316 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.
Powerball was a 5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 311 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 31 December 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 64% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 26 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 311 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 25, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 October 2009 — its closest relative in 311 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 60% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 December 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 37% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 121 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →23 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈19M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 1,285 winners, 31% more than the 978 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 301,582 | $3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 154,356 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 24,971 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 | 63,531 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,385 | $100 |
| Match 4 | 1,285 | $100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 20 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 5 | $200,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $25,000,000 |