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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$48,900,000
The crowdHeld 22% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012draw 286 of 316 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.
Powerball was a 5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 285 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 October 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 48 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 38% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 24 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 285 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 23, 43) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 August 2009 — its closest relative in 285 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 September 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 37% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 106 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →1 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈18M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 1,666 winners, 28% more than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 287,377 | $3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 153,878 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 26,252 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 | 60,133 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,666 | $100 |
| Match 4 | 1,145 | $100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 32 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 4 | $200,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $48,900,000 |