Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Powerball · draw
ResultPowerball
Jackpot$25,000,000
The crowdHeld 24% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012draw 281 of 316 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC.
Powerball was a 5/59 + 1/39 · Jan 2009 – Jan 2012 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 280 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 September 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 44 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 28% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 24 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 280 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (42, 50, 59) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 November 2009 — its closest relative in 280 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (10 September 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 37% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 208 — the 94th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 41–42. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →16 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 33% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈17M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 664 winners, 27% fewer than the 915 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 282,010 | $3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 126,029 | $4.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 18,663 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 | 36,893 | $7.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,034 | $100 |
| Match 4 | 664 | $100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 16 | $10,000 |
| Match 5 | 2 | $200,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | $25,000,000 |