Friday, 17 May 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (35, 36, 39) with the draw of 26 October 2023 — its closest relative in 518 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 May 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 139 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 35–36. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.