Friday, 19 May 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (23, 25, 28) with the draw of 16 May 2023 — its closest relative in 272 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 May 2023): 28, 32 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 122 — the 81th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.