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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Take 5 · draw · evening

Saturday, 16 October 2021

eveningTake 5

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 4
  3. 12
  4. 24
  5. 25

Jackpot$57,576

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 · since Apr 2010draw 83 of 7,036 under them

← 2021-10-15All recent draws2021-10-17 →

Also drawn that day

  • 14 30
    1. 2
    2. 4
    3. 13
    4. 25
    5. 38

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:51 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 4 12 24 2529 Aug 2026, 09:33 UTC

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

59oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 70% of every possible ticket.

  • sum8th
  • odd31th
  • low64th
  • widest gap43th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread33th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each

110times
410times
1211times
2412times
2515times

Every number was expected about that many times after 82 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 4, 25) with the draw of 4 August 2021 — its closest relative in 82 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

66

The numbers add up to 66 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-16

  • Lines in play≈ 517kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out$271.3Kto 59k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 9lines took a prize
  • Match 50 winnerschance said 0.90

Where the money went

  • Match 440%$109.2K
  • Match 340%$108.3K
  • Match 220%$53.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100kPrize each
  1. Match 50≈ 0.90 by chance$57,576
  2. Match 4174≈ 153 by chance$628
  3. Match 35,283≈ 5.0k by chance$20.50
  4. Match 253,768≈ 54k by chance$1.00
  • Winners, log scale
  • Prize each, log scale
  • Where chance put the count

The rings take the ≈517k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 5,283 winners, 5% more than the 5.0k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

Show the published table
MatchWinnersPrize each
Match 50$57,576
Match 4174$628
Match 35,283$20.50
Match 253,768$1.00
Totals59,225—