Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 38) with the draw of 9 November 2014 — its closest relative in 1,734 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 January 2015): 4, 5 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 68 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 4–5. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.