Friday, 31 July 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 21, 33, 34) with the draw of 23 September 2014 — its closest relative in 1,659 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 46% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 July 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 123 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 33–34. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.