Friday, 19 April 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 20, 21) with the draw of 6 April 2024 — its closest relative in 246 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 April 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 20–21. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.