Thursday, 19 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (18, 19, 27, 30) with the draw of 19 July 2021 — its closest relative in 3,439 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 68% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 August 2021): 11 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.