Sunday, 4 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 19, 23, 27) with the draw of 13 March 2018 — its closest relative in 3,302 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 66% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 60th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. No two numbers side by side. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.