Thursday, 30 April 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 24, 30, 31) with the draw of 27 July 2012 — its closest relative in 2,963 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 62% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 April 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 122 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31, 31–32. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.