In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/16 · since Oct 2024 rules — 733 draws, 1 from 1–16.
46times drawn · chance expected 46 +0.03σ
5draws waiting · a wait this long: 77% for any number
16.1average wait between appearances · chance says 16.0
84longest completed wait · 19% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 46 times in 733 draws against 45.8 expected, +0.03σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 46 times in 733 draws · average wait 16.1 draws · longest completed wait 84 · waiting 5 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 15 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 16. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 1/16 tonight whatever it did last week.