Sunday, 23 July 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (1, 16, 22) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 June 2017 — its closest relative in 249 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 58% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 July 2017): 1, 16 carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 44 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 64. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.