Saturday, 12 October 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (20, 22, 24, 25) with the draw of 10 March 2017 — its closest relative in 3,468 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 October 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.