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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · draw
ResultMega Millions
Jackpot$20,000,000
The crowdHeld 20% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017draw 306 of 420 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:47 UTC.
Mega Millions was a 5/75 + 1/15 · Oct 2013 – Oct 2017 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 305 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 September 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 22% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 20 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 305 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (8, 25) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 22 July 2016 — its closest relative in 305 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (20 September 2016): 62 carried over. Chance says 30% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 101 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 190. No two numbers side by side. 25% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →8 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 15 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 24% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈13M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 29,360 winners, 75% more than the 17k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 600,714 | $1.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 241,659 | $2.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 32,686 | $5.00 |
| Match 3 | 29,360 | $5.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,789 | $50.00 |
| Match 4 | 498 | $500 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 40 | $5,000 |
| Match 5 | 2 | $1,000,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | $20,000,000 |