Saturday, 1 June 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (13, 21, 22) with the draw of 3 November 2012 — its closest relative in 328 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 May 2013): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 40th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.