Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 40, 41) with the draw of 9 May 2012 — its closest relative in 273 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 November 2012): 2 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 123 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 40–41. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.