Thursday, 27 September 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (13, 16, 20) with the draw of 17 January 2011 — its closest relative in 258 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 September 2012): 16, 43 carried over. Chance says 62% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 160 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 132. No two numbers side by side. 55% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 35% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.