Wednesday, 15 August 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (18, 26, 30) with the draw of 31 December 2011 — its closest relative in 273 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2012): 10 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 144 — the 42th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

45 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 32% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.