Monday, 19 June 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 17, 22, 43) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 5 March 2015 — its closest relative in 1,375 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 16% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 June 2023): 17 carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 142 — the 73th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.