Wednesday, 9 February 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 23, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 27 January 2022 — its closest relative in 880 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 February 2022): 16 carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.