Wednesday, 15 August 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (7, 15, 18, 25) with the draw of 2 October 2010 — its closest relative in 245 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 42% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2012): 25 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 43th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.