Saturday, 20 July 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (20, 26, 40) with the draw of 20 April 2024 — its closest relative in 233 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 July 2024): 9 carried over. Chance says 59% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 120 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 141. No two numbers side by side. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 20% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.