Saturday, 19 October 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (2, 10, 21) with the draw of 13 March 2013 — its closest relative in 396 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 October 2013): 21, 30 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 58th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 45–46. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

46 had not appeared for 40 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 36% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.