Saturday, 3 September 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 6 numbers (26, 38) with the draw of 20 August 2011 — its closest relative in 174 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 August 2011): 26 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 116 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 6–7, 37–38. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 32% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.