Wednesday, 31 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (26, 32, 33) with the draw of 7 May 2011 — its closest relative in 173 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 August 2011): 33 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 158 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 47% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.