Saturday, 24 October 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 15, 29, 30) with the draw of 2 June 2011 — its closest relative in 1,447 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 29% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 October 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 97 — the 37th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.