Monday, 13 July 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (8, 9, 15, 31) with the draw of 17 October 2018 — its closest relative in 2,441 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 52% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 July 2020): 8, 31 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 75 — the 15th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.