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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
US · AR · ball game
Latest drawMonday, 12 October 2026
Jackpot$95,000
Top prizeNot won — 26 draws unwon
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 13 Oct 2026, 06:51 UTC.
5 numbers from 1–39. 4,528 draws held here since 2012-09-17.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has Natural State Jackpot come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with Natural State Jackpot already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 4,528 draws every number is expected about 581 times, and a ball favoured by more than 16% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 8 draws on average; 5% of the time it waits 23 or more. It is never “due”.

The 5 numbers add up to about 100, give or take 24. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

43.6% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

741 possible pairs, each expected together 61.1 times so far — and about 7 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 39 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

52% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 100.0% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 6.7 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 32 draws for every one of the 39 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

575,757 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 4,528 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 7, the highest near 33. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

5/39 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 2% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 252 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 5/39 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.
Take the record with youRSSJSON feedCSV, every drawDraw nights, in your calendarAPI

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 October 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 37% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,527 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (8, 18, 19, 24) with the draw of 21 September 2026 — its closest relative in 4,527 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 October 2026): 19 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 92 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19, 23–24. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →24 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈19k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 1,923 winners, 0% more than the 1.9k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 | 0 | $95,000 |
| Match 4 | 6 | $300 |
| Match 3 | 178 | $7.00 |
| Match 2 | 1,923 | $1.00 |
| Totals | 2,107 | — |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
Open any draw to read it by every tool — the same six readings the latest result gets above, each against what chance predicted at the time.
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 13 Oct 2026, 06:51 UTC.
Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 37% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,527 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
These waits do not fall away from zero the way the law does — they pile up in the middle. That is what happens when the chance of a win is not the same on every draw of a run: few tickets are sold when the prize is small, and so many when it is enormous that a win becomes close to certain. The wait is more predictable than a constant chance allows, and less predictable than it feels.
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0–5 | 4 | 9.2 |
| 6–11 | 7 | 7.3 |
| 12–17 | 7 | 5.9 |
| 18–23 | 8 | 4.7 |
| 24–29 | 3 | 3.8 |
| 30–35 | 4 | 3.0 |
| 36–41 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 42–47 | 5 | 1.9 |
| 48–53 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 54–59 | 2 | 1.2 |
| 60+ | 3 | 5.0 |
Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,526 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 19, 20) with the draw of 5 June 2026 — its closest relative in 4,526 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (10 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 84 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 6–7, 19–20. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →20 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 74 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 99% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,525 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 16, 23, 25) with the draw of 5 April 2024 — its closest relative in 4,525 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (9 October 2026): 3 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 95 — the 41th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →23 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 53% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,524 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 18, 29) with the draw of 17 May 2026 — its closest relative in 4,524 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (8 October 2026): 9, 18 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 69 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 62 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 79% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,523 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 18, 34) with the draw of 15 August 2026 — its closest relative in 4,523 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 108 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 57% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,522 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 16, 28) with the draw of 30 August 2026 — its closest relative in 4,522 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (6 October 2026): 16, 28 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 67 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →13 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 56% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 580 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,521 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 28, 33, 36) with the draw of 23 August 2018 — its closest relative in 4,521 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (5 October 2026): 33 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 114 — the 71th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →16 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 34 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 13% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 579 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,520 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (17, 26, 29, 33) with the draw of 7 September 2019 — its closest relative in 4,520 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (4 October 2026): 17 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 137 — the 94th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →29 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 24 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 5% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 579 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,519 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 12, 17) with the draw of 25 December 2025 — its closest relative in 4,519 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (3 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 52 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →12 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 62% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 579 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,518 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 9, 24, 31) with the draw of 20 April 2020 — its closest relative in 4,518 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (2 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 74 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 72 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 97% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 579 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,517 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 17, 26, 36) with the draw of 10 May 2019 — its closest relative in 4,517 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (1 October 2026): 26 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 103 — the 54th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →36 had not appeared for 41 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 579 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,516 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 23, 25, 26) with the draw of 14 August 2017 — its closest relative in 4,516 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (30 September 2026): 22, 26 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 97 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23, 25–26. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →1 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →