Friday, 25 August 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 12, 21, 29) with the draw of 31 January 2015 — its closest relative in 1,541 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 37% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 August 2017): 21 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 91 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.