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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Wednesday, 4 August 2021

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 13
  2. 26
  3. 28
  4. 30
  5. 34
  6. 39
  7. 3

JackpotNZ$4,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/10 · since Nov 2011draw 813 of 1,352 under them

← 2021-07-31All recent draws2021-08-07 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:39 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed13 26 28 30 34 39 + 329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

40oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 40 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 22% of every possible ticket.

  • sum96th
  • odd21th
  • low5th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread28th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 122 of each

13118times
26130times
28112times
30117times
34

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-04

  • Lines in play≈ 3.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$293.8Kto 12k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 274lines took a prize
  • Match 6 + Powerball0 winnerschance said 0.08

Where the money went

  • Match 4 + Powerball15%NZ$45.4K
  • Match 3 + Powerball51%NZ$150.6K
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball15%NZ$42.7K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$55.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 6 + Powerball0≈ 0.08 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

110times
39117times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 81 of each

379times

Every number was expected about that many times after 812 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (26, 30, 34, 39) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 December 2018 — its closest relative in 812 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 July 2021): 34 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 3 repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

170

The numbers add up to 170 — the 96th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 27% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$4,000,000
  • Match 5 + Powerball15≈ 17 by chanceNZ$1,457
  • Match 4 + Powerball688≈ 706 by chanceNZ$66.00
  • Match 3 + Powerball10,041≈ 10k by chanceNZ$15.00
  • Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball1NZ$27,748
  • Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball46NZ$119
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball971NZ$44.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Powerball — 688 winners, 3% fewer than the 706 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 6 + Powerball0NZ$4,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball1NZ$27,748
    Match 5 + Powerball15NZ$1,457
    Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball46NZ$119
    Match 4 + Powerball688NZ$66.00
    Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball971NZ$44.00
    Match 3 + Powerball10,041NZ$15.00
    Totals11,762—