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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Powerball · draw

Wednesday, 28 July 2021

ResultPowerball

Single source
  1. 6
  2. 8
  3. 9
  4. 10
  5. 20
  6. 30
  7. 9

JackpotNZ$4,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/10 · since Nov 2011draw 811 of 1,352 under them

← 2021-07-24All recent draws2021-07-31 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:39 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed6 8 9 10 20 30 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 28 July 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

24oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 24 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 4% of every possible ticket.

  • sum7th
  • odd5th
  • low95th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread19th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 122 of each

6119times
8115times
9117times
10130times
20

Prize breakdown · 2021-07-28

  • Lines in play≈ 3.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$263.9Kto 12k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 272lines took a prize
  • Match 6 + Powerball0 winnerschance said 0.09

Where the money went

  • Match 4 + Powerball14%NZ$37.4K
  • Match 3 + Powerball58%NZ$154K
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball14%NZ$36.6K
  • 2 other tiers14%NZ$35.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 6 + Powerball0≈ 0.09 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

123times
30116times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 81 of each

977times

Every number was expected about that many times after 810 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (6, 10, 20, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 4 April 2020 — its closest relative in 810 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 July 2021): 9, 10 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

83

The numbers add up to 83 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9, 9–10. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$4,000,000
  • Match 5 + Powerball27≈ 17 by chanceNZ$1,143
  • Match 4 + Powerball780≈ 722 by chanceNZ$48.00
  • Match 3 + Powerball10,264≈ 10k by chanceNZ$15.00
  • Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball58NZ$86.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball964NZ$38.00
  • Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball0no winners
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Powerball — 780 winners, 8% more than the 722 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 6 + Powerball0NZ$4,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus + Powerball0NZ$0.00
    Match 5 + Powerball27NZ$1,143
    Match 4 + Bonus + Powerball58NZ$86.00
    Match 4 + Powerball780NZ$48.00
    Match 3 + Bonus + Powerball964NZ$38.00
    Match 3 + Powerball10,264NZ$15.00
    Totals12,093—