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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 21 September 2024

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 12
  3. 19
  4. 21
  5. 25
  6. 36
  7. 34

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,141 of 1,359 under them

← 2024-09-18All recent draws2024-09-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 12 19 21 25 36 + 3429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

79oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 79 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 97% of every possible ticket.

  • sum50th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread28th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 171 of each

10182times
12180times
19199times
21169times
25

Prize breakdown · 2024-09-21

  • Lines in play≈ 8.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.6Mto 288k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.3

Where the money went

  • Match 638%NZ$1M
  • Match 420%NZ$508.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus20%NZ$514.7K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$578.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.3 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

181times
36162times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,140 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 19, 21, 36) with the draw of 22 May 2024 — its closest relative in 1,140 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 September 2024): 19 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

123

The numbers add up to 123 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus12≈ 14 by chanceNZ$21,735
  • Match 5415≈ 448 by chanceNZ$623
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,078≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$55.00
  • Match 417,544≈ 18k by chanceNZ$29.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus21,445≈ 24k by chanceNZ$24.00
  • Match 3247,040≈ 247k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 21,445 winners, 10% fewer than the 24k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus12NZ$21,735
    Match 5415NZ$623
    Match 4 + Bonus1,078NZ$55.00
    Match 417,544NZ$29.00
    Match 3 + Bonus21,445NZ$24.00
    Match 3247,040NZ$0.00
    Totals287,535—