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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 20 December 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 15
  3. 26
  4. 37
  5. 38
  6. 40
  7. 20

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,062 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-12-16All recent draws2023-12-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 15 26 37 38 40 + 2029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 20 December 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

45oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 31% of every possible ticket.

  • sum90th
  • odd21th
  • low21th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread96th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 159 of each

2161times
15176times
26162times
37149times
38

Prize breakdown · 2023-12-20

  • Lines in play≈ 6.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.4Mto 217k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.7

Where the money went

  • Match 642%NZ$1M
  • Match 419%NZ$447.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus18%NZ$439.1K
  • 3 other tiers21%NZ$497.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

145times
40159times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,061 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (15, 26, 38, 40) with the draw of 27 February 2021 — its closest relative in 1,061 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 December 2023): 37 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

158

The numbers add up to 158 — the 90th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 26% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus10≈ 10 by chanceNZ$22,417
  • Match 5323≈ 336 by chanceNZ$688
  • Match 4 + Bonus798≈ 840 by chanceNZ$64.00
  • Match 413,168≈ 13k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus17,562≈ 18k by chanceNZ$25.00
  • Match 3185,117≈ 185k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 798 winners, 5% fewer than the 840 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus10NZ$22,417
    Match 5323NZ$688
    Match 4 + Bonus798NZ$64.00
    Match 413,168NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus17,562NZ$25.00
    Match 3185,117NZ$0.00
    Totals216,979—