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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 18 January 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 4
  3. 7
  4. 23
  5. 28
  6. 35
  7. 17

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 966 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-01-14All recent draws2023-01-21 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 4 7 23 28 35 + 1729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 January 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

52oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 47% of every possible ticket.

  • sum18th
  • odd79th
  • low50th
  • widest gap80th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread75th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 145 of each

1152times
4140times
7141times
23161times
28

Prize breakdown · 2023-01-18

  • Lines in play≈ 12Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.3Mto 412k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 3.2

Where the money went

  • Match 630%NZ$1M
  • Match 423%NZ$750K
  • Match 3 + Bonus22%NZ$707.5K
  • 3 other tiers25%NZ$828.9K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 3.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

140times
35152times

Every number was expected about that many times after 965 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 7, 23, 28) with the draw of 8 August 2020 — its closest relative in 965 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 January 2023): 28 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

98

The numbers add up to 98 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus27≈ 19 by chanceNZ$13,824
  • Match 5583≈ 634 by chanceNZ$635
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,644≈ 1.6k by chanceNZ$52.00
  • Match 425,001≈ 25k by chanceNZ$30.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus35,377≈ 34k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3349,626≈ 350k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈12M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 583 winners, 8% fewer than the 634 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus27NZ$13,824
    Match 5583NZ$635
    Match 4 + Bonus1,644NZ$52.00
    Match 425,001NZ$30.00
    Match 3 + Bonus35,377NZ$20.00
    Match 3349,626NZ$0.00
    Totals412,260—