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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 2 October 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 9
  3. 10
  4. 14
  5. 23
  6. 38
  7. 2

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 831 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-09-29All recent draws2021-10-06 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 9 10 14 23 38 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 2 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

49oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 41% of every possible ticket.

  • sum22th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap74th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread50th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 125 of each

8119times
9119times
10135times
14121times
23

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-02

  • Lines in play≈ 13Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.4Mto 433k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 3.4

Where the money went

  • Match 629%NZ$1M
  • Match 423%NZ$777.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus23%NZ$782.2K
  • 3 other tiers26%NZ$882.1K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 3.4 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

138times
38112times

Every number was expected about that many times after 830 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 10, 14, 23) with the draw of 16 August 2017 — its closest relative in 830 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 September 2021): 23, 38 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

102

The numbers add up to 102 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9, 9–10. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus22≈ 20 by chanceNZ$18,059
  • Match 5602≈ 667 by chanceNZ$655
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,616≈ 1.7k by chanceNZ$56.00
  • Match 425,923≈ 27k by chanceNZ$30.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus37,249≈ 36k by chanceNZ$21.00
  • Match 3367,623≈ 368k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈13M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 602 winners, 10% fewer than the 667 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus22NZ$18,059
    Match 5602NZ$655
    Match 4 + Bonus1,616NZ$56.00
    Match 425,923NZ$30.00
    Match 3 + Bonus37,249NZ$21.00
    Match 3367,623NZ$0.00
    Totals433,037—