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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 25 September 2019

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 5
  3. 15
  4. 21
  5. 22
  6. 31
  7. 9

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 620 of 1,355 under them

← 2019-09-21All recent draws2019-09-28 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 5 15 21 22 31 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 September 2019 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

58oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 63% of every possible ticket.

  • sum17th
  • odd95th
  • low50th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 93 of each

394times
579times
15109times
2192times
22

Prize breakdown · 2019-09-25

  • Lines in play≈ 7.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.5Mto 264k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.0

Where the money went

  • Match 640%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 419%NZ$479.5K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$468.7K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$536.1K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.0 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

96times
3193times

Every number was expected about that many times after 619 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 21, 22, 31) with the draw of 1 August 2018 — its closest relative in 619 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 September 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

97

The numbers add up to 97 — the 16th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus18≈ 12 by chanceNZ$13,412
  • Match 5438≈ 404 by chanceNZ$547
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,039≈ 1.0k by chanceNZ$53.00
  • Match 416,535≈ 16k by chanceNZ$29.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus23,433≈ 22k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3222,908≈ 223k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 23,433 winners, 9% more than the 22k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus18NZ$13,412
    Match 5438NZ$547
    Match 4 + Bonus1,039NZ$53.00
    Match 416,535NZ$29.00
    Match 3 + Bonus23,433NZ$20.00
    Match 3222,908NZ$0.00
    Totals0—